Me pehea te Matapae a AI i nga Ia?

Ka taea e te AI te kite i ngā tauira e ngaro ana i te kanohi tahanga, ka puta ake ngā tohu e ahua haruru ana i te tīmatanga. Ki te tika te whakamahi, ka huri i ngā whanonga pōrearea hei tirohanga matatau - ngā hoko i te marama e tū mai nei, ngā waka āpōpō, ngā huringa i muri mai i tēnei hauwhā. Ki te hē te whakamahi, he pakihiwi māia. I roto i tēnei aratohu, ka tirohia e tātou ngā tikanga tika mō te Matapae a te AI i ngā Auahatanga, te pūtake mai o ngā wikitoria, me pēhea te karo i te tinihangatia e ngā tūtohi ataahua. Ka noho tonu ahau hei mea whai hua, me ētahi wā kōrero pono me te hiki ake i ngā tukemata 🙃.

Ngā tuhinga ka pai pea koe ki te pānui i muri i tēnei:

🔗 Me pehea te ine i te mahi AI
Ngā inenga matua mō te aromatawai i te tika, te whai huatanga, me te pono o ngā pūnaha AI.

🔗 Me pehea te korero ki a AI
Ngā tohutohu whai hua mō te kōrero ki te AI hei whakapai ake i te kounga o te urupare.

🔗 He aha te AI akiaki
He whakamārama mārama mō te pānga o ngā akiaki ki ngā whanonga me ngā putanga o te AI.

🔗 He aha te tapanga raraunga AI
He kupu whakataki ki te tapanga raraunga whai hua mō te whakangungu i ngā tauira ako mīhini.

He aha te mea e pai ai te matapae i ngā au o te AI ✅

Ina pātai te tangata me pēhea te matapae a te AI i ngā au, ko tā rātou e kī ana ko: me pēhea te matapae i tētahi mea kāore i te tino mārama engari e puta tonu ana. He maha ngā āhuatanga hoha engari he ataahua o te matapae au pai:

• Raraunga me te tohu - kāore e taea te kōpeke i te wai karaka mai i te toka. Me whai uara me te horopaki o mua.

• Ngā āhuatanga e whakaata ana i te ao tūturu - ngā āhuatanga o te wā, ngā hararei, ngā whakatairanga, ngā horopaki whānui, tae atu ki te rangi. Ehara i te katoa, engari ko ngā mea e neke ana i tō ngira.

• Ngā tauira e uru ana ki te karaka - ngā tikanga e mōhio ana ki te wā e whakaute ana i te raupapa, ngā āputa, me te paheketanga.

• Aromatawai e whakaata ana i te whakatinanatanga - he whakamātautau whakamuri e whakatauira ana i te āhua o tō matapae. Kāore he titiro matatau [2].

• Te aroturuki i ngā panonitanga - ka huri te ao; me huri anō hoki tō tauira [5].

Ko te angaanga tēnā. Ko te toenga he uaua, he uaua, me te iti o te kawheine.

Te Ara Matua: me pēhea te Matapae a te AI i ngā Auahatanga mai i ngā raraunga mata ki ngā matapae 🧪

1. Kohikohia me te whakarite raraunga
   . Whakakotahitia te raupapa ūnga me ngā tohu o waho. Ngā pūtake noa: ngā rarangi hua, ngā whakapaunga pānuitanga, ngā utu, ngā tohu whānui, me ngā huihuinga. Whakaritea ngā tohu wā, whakahaere i ngā uara ngaro, whakataurite i ngā waeine. Kāore i te ātaahua engari he mea nui.

2. Ngā āhuatanga o te miihini
   Waihangahia ngā whakaroa, ngā tikanga hurihuri, ngā ine neke, ngā haki o te rā o te wiki, me ngā tohu motuhake ki te rohe. Mō te whakatikatika ā-wā, he maha ngā kaimahi e wehewehe ana i tētahi raupapa ki ngā wāhanga ia, ā-wā, me ngā toenga i mua i te whakatauira; ko te kaupapa X-13 a te Tari Tatauranga o Amerika te tohutoro matua mō te pēhea me te take e mahi ai tēnei [1].

3. Kōwhiria he whānau tauira.
   E toru āu pākete nunui:

• Ngā tatauranga tawhito : ARIMA, ETS, ātea-āhua/Kalman. He māmā te whakamārama, he tere hoki.

• Te ako mīhini : te whakanui i te pikinga, ngā ngahere matapōkere me ngā āhuatanga e mōhio ana ki te wā. Ngāwari te whakamahi puta noa i ngā raupapa maha.

• Te ako hōhonu : LSTM, Ngā CNN Wā, Ngā Transformer. He whai hua ina he nui ngā raraunga me te hanganga uaua.

4. Whakamātautau tika i te whakamuri
   Ka whakamahia e te whakamana whakawhiti raupapa wā he pūtake hurihuri kia kore ai koe e whakangungu mō te heke mai i a koe e whakamātautau ana i te mua. Koinei te rerekētanga i waenga i te tika pono me te wawata noa [2].

5. Matapae, ine i te koretake, me te tuku
   i ngā matapae Whakahoki me ngā wā, aroturukihia te hapa, me te whakangungu anō i te nekehanga o te ao. Ko ngā ratonga whakahaere he maha ngā wā ka puta ake ngā inenga tika (hei tauira, MAPE, WAPE, MASE) me ngā matapihi whakamātautau-muri mai i te pouaka, e māmā ake ai te whakahaere me ngā papaaho whakahaere [3].

He kōrero pakanga poto: i roto i tētahi whakarewatanga, i pau i a mātou tētahi atu rā ki ngā āhuatanga maramataka (ngā hararei ā-rohe + ngā haki whakatairanga) ā, i tapahia e mātou ngā hapa o te pae tawhiti, nui atu i te whakawhiti tauira. Ko te kounga o te āhuatanga, he mea hou te tauira - he kaupapa ka kite anō koe.

Ripanga Whakataurite: ngā taputapu hei āwhina i te AI ki te Matapae i ngā Auahatanga 🧰

Kāore i tino tika - he tēpu tūturu me ētahi āhuatanga tangata.

Āe, kāore i te ōrite te kīanga. Koinā te ao tūturu.

Te Hangarau Āhuatanga e neke ana i te ngira 🧩

Ko te whakautu māmā rawa atu mō te āhua o te AI Predict Trends ko tēnei: ​​ka hurihia e mātou te raupapa hei tēpu ako e tirotirohia ana e maumahara ana ki te wā. Anei ētahi mahi hei mahi māu:

• Ngā whakaroa me ngā matapihi : kei roto ko y[t-1], y[t-7], y[t-28], me ngā tikanga hurihuri me te whanaketanga paerewa. Ka hopukina e ia te nekehanga me te kore e nekeneke.

• Ngā tohu ā-wā : marama, wiki, rā-o-te-wiki, hāora-o-te-rā. Mā ngā kupu Fourier ka puta he kōpiko ā-wā maeneene.

• Maramataka me ngā huihuinga : hararei, whakarewatanga hua, huringa utu, whakatairanga. He āhuatanga noa iho ngā pānga hararei ā-poropiti me ngā kaupapa matua.

• Te Wehewehenga : tangohia he wāhanga o te wā, ka whakatauira i te toenga ina kaha ngā tauira; Ko te X-13 he tūāpapa kua whakamatautauria mō tēnei [1].

• Ngā pūwhakamuri o waho : te rangi, ngā taupūtanga makro, ngā tirohanga whārangi, te hiahia rapu.

• Tohutohu taunekeneke : ngā ripeka māmā pēnei i te promo_flag × day_of_week. He uaua engari he maha ngā wā ka mahi.

Mena he maha āu raupapa e pā ana - hei tauira, mano tini ngā SKU - ka taea e koe te whakakotahi i ngā mōhiohio puta noa i aua raupapa me ngā tauira ā-papa, ā-ao rānei. I roto i te mahi, he maha ngā wā ka nui ake te taumaha o tētahi tauira whakarei-rōnaki ā-ao me ngā āhuatanga mōhio-wā.

Te Kōwhiri i ngā Whānau Tauira: he pakanga hoahoa 🤼♀️

• ARIMA/ETS
  : he māmā te whakamārama, he tere, he pakari ngā tūāpapa. Ngā Huakore: ka uaua te whakatikatika i ia raupapa i te tauine. Ka taea e te hononga-ā-roto ā-wāhanga te āwhina i te whakaatu i ngā raupapa, engari kaua e tumanako ki ngā merekara.

• Whakarei Āhuatanga
  : ka taea te whakahaere i ngā āhuatanga ripanga, he kaha ki ngā tohu whakauru, he pai ki ngā raupapa e pā ana. Ngā Huakore: me pai te hanga i ngā āhuatanga wā me te whakaute i te hononga ā-ira.

• Te ako hōhonu
  Ngā Painga: ka hopu i ngā tauira kore-raina me ngā tauira whakawhiti-raupapa. Ngā Huakore: he nui ngā raraunga e hiahiatia ana, he uaua ki te whakatika hapa. Mēnā he horopaki whai kiko, he hītori roa rānei tōu, ka taea e ia te tiaho; ki te kore, he motuka hākinakina i roto i ngā wā pukumahi.

• Ngā momo ranu me ngā huinga
  Kia pono tātou, he mea whakaharikoa te whakakotahi i tētahi oro taketake o te wā me tētahi whakakaha whakarara me te whakaranu ki tētahi LSTM māmā. He maha atu aku wā i hoki whakamuri ai ki te "tauira parakore kotahi" i taku e whakaae ana.

Te hononga take me te hononga: kia tūpato te whakahaere 🧭

Ahakoa e nekeneke ana ngā rārangi e rua, ehara i te mea ka ārahi tetahi i tetahi. Mā te Granger causality e whakamātautau mēnā ka pai ake te matapae mō te ūnga mā te tāpiri i tētahi kaitono causality, i runga i tōna ake hītori. E pā ana ki te whai huatanga matapae i raro i ngā whakaaro autoregressive rārangi, ehara i te takenga whakaaro - he rerekētanga ngawari engari he mea nui [4].

I roto i te whakaputanga, ka tirotirohia tonutia e koe te mōhiotanga ki te rohe. Hei tauira: he mea nui ngā pānga o te wiki mō te hokohoko, engari ko te tāpiri i ngā pāwhiri pānuitanga o te wiki kua hipa ka kore pea e tika mena kei roto kē te whakapaunga i te tauira.

Te Whakamātautau me ngā Inenga: te wāhi e huna ai te nuinga o ngā hapa 🔍

Hei aromatawai i te āhua o te matapae a te AI i ngā au i roto i te ao tūturu, whaia te āhua o tāu matapae i te ao tūroa:

• Whakamana whakawhiti-taketake hurihuri : te whakangungu tonu i ngā raraunga o mua me te matapae i te wāhanga e whai ake nei. Ka whakaute tēnei i te raupapa wā, ā, ka ārai i te turuturu a meake nei [2].

• Ngā inenga hapa : whiriwhiria te mea e rite ana ki ō whakatau. He rongonui ngā inenga ōrau pēnei i te MAPE, engari he pai ake te mahi a ngā inenga taumaha (WAPE) me ngā inenga kore-tauine (MASE) mō ngā putea me ngā whakakotahitanga [3].

• Ngā wā matapae : kaua e hoatu noa he tohu. Kōrerohia te koretake. Kāore i te tino pai ki ngā kaiwhakahaere ngā whānuitanga, engari he iti ake ngā ohorere e pai ana ki a rātou.

He hapa iti nei: ina kore pea ngā tūemi, ka rerekē ngā inenga ōrau. He pai ake ngā hapa tino, ngā hapa tauine rānei, tāpirihia rānei he hapa iti - kia rite tonu.

Ka puta te rerekētanga: te kimi me te urutau ki te huringa 🌊

Ka neke ngā mākete, ka neke ngā manakohanga, ka pakeke haere ngā pūoko. te nekenga ariā te huarahi katoa e whanake ai te whanaungatanga i waenga i ngā whakaurunga me te ūnga. Ka taea e koe te aroturuki i te nekenga mā te whakamahi i ngā whakamātautau tatauranga, ngā hapa matapihi reti, ngā tirotiro tohatoha raraunga rānei. Kātahi ka whiriwhiri i tētahi rautaki: he matapihi whakangungu poto ake, he whakangungu anō ā-wā, he tauira urutau rānei e whakahou ana i te ipurangi. E whakaatu ana ngā rangahau o te mara i ngā momo nekenga maha me ngā kaupapa here urutau; kāore he kaupapa here kotahi e pai ana mō te katoa [5].

He pukapuka whaihua: whakatakotohia he paepae whakatūpato mō ngā hapa matapae ora, whakangungu anō i runga i te kaupapa, me te pupuri i tētahi turanga tautoko. Kāore i te tino ataahua - he tino whai hua.

Te Whakamārama: te whakatuwhera i te pouaka pango me te kore e pakaru 🔦

Ka pātai ngā kaipupuri hea he aha i piki ake ai te matapae. He mea whaitake. Ko ngā taputapu tauira-kore pēnei i te SHAP e hono ana i te matapae ki ngā āhuatanga i runga i te huarahi ariā, hei āwhina i a koe ki te kite mēnā ko te wā, te utu, te mana whakatairanga rānei i pana i te tau. Kāore e whakaatu i te hononga take, engari ka whakapai ake i te whakawhirinaki me te rapu hapa.

I roto i aku ake whakamātautau, ko ngā tohu hokohoko ā-wiki me ngā tohu whakatairanga te nuinga o ngā matapae hokohoko mō ngā wā poto, ko ngā tohu hokohoko roa ia ka neke ki ngā tohu hokohoko nui. Ka rerekē ō hua - he pai te āhua.

Kapua me ngā MLOp: ngā matapae tuku me te kore he rīpene 🚚

Mena he pai ki a koe ngā tūāpapa whakahaere:

• Mā te Google Vertex AI Forecast ka ārahihia te tukanga mahi mō te whakauru i ngā raupapa wā, te whakahaere i te matapae AutoML, te whakamātautau whakamuri, me te whakatinana i ngā pito mutunga. He pai hoki te mahi tahi me te puranga raraunga hou.

• a Amazon Forecast ki te whakatinanatanga tauine nui, me ngā whakamātautau whakamuri paerewa me ngā inenga tika ka taea e koe te tango mā te API, e āwhina ana ki te whakahaere me ngā papaaho whakahaere [3].

Ka whakaitihia e tētahi ara te taumata paerewa. Me aro noa ki ngā utu, me te aro ki te whakapapa raraunga. He uaua rawa ngā tirohanga e rua engari ka taea te mahi.

He Aratohu Take Poto: mai i ngā pāwhiri mata ki te tohu auaha 🧭✨

Me whakaaro tātou kei te matapae koe i ngā rēhitatanga o ia rā mō tētahi taupānga freemium:

1. Raraunga : tāia ngā rēhitatanga o ia rā, ngā whakapaunga pānuitanga mā te hongere, ngā whakamutu mahi o te pae, me tētahi maramataka whakatairanga māmā.

2. Ngā Āhuatanga : ngā whakaroa 1, 7, 14; he toharite hurihuri 7-rā; ngā haki o te rā-o-te-wiki; te haki whakatairanga rua; he wāhanga wā Fourier; me te toenga wā kua wehea kia aro ai te tauira ki te wāhanga kāore e hokihoki. Ko te wehewehenga wā he nekehanga matarohia i roto i ngā tatauranga mana - he ingoa hoha, he utu nui [1].

3. Tauira : tīmata ki tētahi pūwhakamuri whakakaha-rōnaki hei tauira ā-ao puta noa i ngā whenua katoa.

4. Whakamātautau Whakamuri : te huri i te pūtake me ngā takahanga ā-wiki. Arotauhia te WAPE i tō wāhanga pakihi matua. Kāore e taea te whiriwhiri i ngā whakamātautau whakamuri e whai ana i te wā kia pono ai ngā hua [2].

5. Whakamāramahia : tirohia ngā tohu āhuatanga ia wiki kia kite ai mēnā kei te mahi te haki whakatairanga i tētahi atu mea i tua atu i te ātaahua i roto i ngā kiriata.

6. Aroturuki : ki te memeha haere te pānga o te whakatairanga, ki te huri rānei ngā tauira o te wiki i muri i te panonitanga o te hua, me tīmata he whakangungu anō. Ehara te nekeneke i te hapa - he Wenerei kē [5].

Ko te putanga: he matapae pono me ngā awhi whakawhirinaki, me te papaaho e whakaatu ana i te mea i neke ai te ngira. He iti ake ngā tautohetohe, he nui ake ngā mahi.

Ngā mahanga me ngā pūrākau hei karo mārire 🚧

• Pūrākau: he pai ake ngā āhuatanga maha. Kāore. Mā te nui rawa o ngā āhuatanga kāore e tika ana ka nui rawa te whakauru. Puritia te mea āwhina hei whakamātautau whakamuri, kia rite hoki ki te tikanga o te rohe.

• Pūrākau: ka hinga ngā mea katoa i ngā kupenga hōhonu. I ētahi wā āe, i ētahi wā kāo. Mena he poto, he haruru rānei ngā raraunga, ka toa ngā tikanga tawhito i te pumau me te māramatanga.

• Te mahanga: te turuturu. Mā te tuku pōhēhē i ngā mōhiohio o āpōpō ki roto i te whakangungu o tēnei rā ka whakahāngai i ō inenga, ka whiua hoki tō whakaputanga [2].

• Te mahanga: te whai i te ira whakamutunga. Mena he pūngāwerewere tō mekameka tuku, he mahi whakaari te tautohetohe i waenga i te hapa 7.3 me te 7.4 ōrau. Arotahi ki ngā paepae whakatau.

• Pūrākau: te hononga take mai i te hononga. Ka tirohia e ngā whakamātautau Granger te whai huatanga o te matapae, ehara i te pono rapunga whakaaro - whakamahia hei ārai, ehara i te rongopai [4].

Rārangi Arowhai Whakatinanatanga ka taea e koe te tārua me te whakapiri 📋

• Tautuhia ngā pae tawhiti, ngā taumata whakahiato, me te whakatau ka arahina e koe.

• Hangaia he taupū wā ma, whakakīia, tohua rānei ngā āputa, ka whakarārangihia ngā raraunga o waho.

• Ngā whakaroa mahi toi, ngā tatauranga hurihuri, ngā haki o ngā wā, me ngā āhuatanga rohe torutoru e whakawhirinaki ana koe.

• Tīmata ki tētahi tauira tūāpapa pakari, kātahi ka huri ki tētahi tauira uaua ake mēnā e tika ana.

• Whakamahia ngā whakamātautau takenga hurihuri me te inenga e ōrite ana ki tō pakihi [2][3].

• Tāpirihia ngā wā matapae - ehara i te mea whiriwhiri.

• Tukuna te kaipuke, aroturukihia te nekenekehanga, me te whakangungu anō i runga i te wātaka me ngā whakatūpato [5].

He roa rawa, kāore au i pānui - Ngā kōrero whakamutunga 💬

Ko te pono māmā mō te āhua o te matapae a te AI i ngā au: ehara i te mea mō ngā rauropi makutu engari mō te hoahoa whai tikanga, whai wā. Tikina ngā raraunga me ngā āhuatanga tika, arotakehia ma te pono, whakamāramahia kia māmā, ka urutau i te nekehanga o te ao. He rite ki te whakatikatika i tētahi reo irirangi me ngā porotiti hinuhinu - he ahua pōturi, he wā tūmau, engari ina tae mai te teihana, he mārama whakamiharo.

Ki te tangohia e koe tētahi mea: whakaute i te wā, whakamanahia pērā i te tangata ruarua, me te aroturuki tonu. Ko te toenga he taputapu me te reka noa iho.

Ngā Tohutoro

1. Te Tari Tatauranga o Amerika - X-13ARIMA-SEATS Kaupapa Whakarerekētanga Wā . Hononga

2. Hyndman & Athanasopoulos - Matapae: Ngā Mātāpono me ngā Mahi (FPP3), §5.10 Whakamana-whakawhiti raupapa wā . Hononga

3. Ratonga Tukutuku Amazon - Te Aromatawai i te Tika o te Matapae (Amazon Forecast) . Hononga

4. Te Whare Wānanga o Houston - Granger Causality (ngā tuhipoka kauhau) . Hononga

5. Gama me ētahi atu - He Arotake mō te Whakarerekētanga o te Ariā (putanga tuwhera). Hononga

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